A new survey released by Global Info Analytics has tipped Former President John Mahama to beat Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the 2024 elections.
The survey with a sample size of 5,232 saw 53 percent of the respondents approve John Mahama’s comeback while only 30% leaned towards Vice President Dr. Bawumia, if he wins the New Patriotic Party flagbearership race for the election.
A similar survey released by the organization in January showed both the Vice President and the former President gain 38 and 43 percent respectively.
This means that three months down the line, John Mahama’s approval rating has shot up by 10% while the Vice President’s has dipped by 8%.
The survey comes at a time when the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted victory for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2024 elections.
It however suggested that the NDC selects a new flagbearer besides John Mahama to further boost its chances.
“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024. Under constitutionally mandated term limits, the incumbent President Akufo-Addo, cannot run for a third term.
“The former president, John Mahama, is reportedly considering running again, but we expect the opposition NDC to try to revitalize its prospects with a fresh candidate.
“Our [EIU] baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation and easing of corruption—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change,” the report emphasized.
The survey again tipped Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia to emerge victorious in the NPP primaries although Alan Kyerematen will pose a threat to his quest.
John Mahama also remained the most preferred candidate to be voted for in the NDC primaries ahead of the likes of Dr. Kwabena Duffuor.
About the report’s Sampling Method
34 constituencies that were previously selected under convenient sample were repeated for purposes of establishing the polling trend.
With an additional 34 constituencies selected using random sampling. The previous constituencies polled in Jan. were excluded prior to running the random simulation model to select the constituencies. Thus, giving the remaining 241 constituencies an equal chance of select.
The 2020 Electoral Commissions voters’ register was used as a sampling frame for the purpose of allocating sample size to each constituency.
Allocation of sample was based on the total registered voters in the constituencies relative to the 68 constituencies selected.
For each constituency selected, the location for the interview was also selected randomly from three Electoral Areas of the constituency.
Read below the full survey by Global Info Analytics
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EKG2KE-2fWJ1iuoCdmgLl-jIFd-jGsMv/view
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